Hawaiian Telcom's Burn Rate
Saturday, December 6th, 2008A retired Hawaiian Telcom employee called me the other day to ask if I knew how long the local phone company’s bankruptcy will last.
That’s a good question. After all, it looks like it’s going to be a complicated reorganization in which the company has to slug it out with its big creditors, namely its bondholders.
The case also will require regulatory oversight by the state Public Utilities Commission, which can draw out the bankruptcy.
Here’s my best guesstimate: About a year. A year-and-a-half at the most.
The company has cash -- about $75 million -- to pay its expenses and the various bankruptcy fees, which can add up during a complicated reorganization like this.
It’s always a good sign when a company seek bankruptcy has a lot of cash. During its 2003 bankruptcy, Hawaiian Airlines went in with a lot of cash and emerged as a stronger, more efficient company.
Aloha Airlines, on the other hand, entered its first bankruptcy in 2004 with just $3 million in cash. Aloha was down to $3.8 million in cash when it filed for bankruptcy for a second time this March. It eventually shut down on March 31.
As for Hawaiian Telcom, I’m not sure if the company is going to get much in the form of new loans while it’s in bankruptcy so its cash holdings are going to be key.
(The company already owes about $1.3 billion to its various creditors so it’s not likely to get much in the form of debtor-in-possession financing. DIP financing is probably pretty scarce theses days and even in good times, the interest rates are pretty onerous, approaching the double-digit, credit card-like rates.)
Hawaiian Telcom’s cash holdings of $75 million would take 18.5 months to burn based on the company’s operating losses for the year.
According to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company’s operating losses for the first nine months this year is about $35.7 million a year, or about $4 million a month.
But you also have to add in the bankruptcy fees -- for attorneys, investment bankers and consultants -- which pile up in this type of case.
In the Hawaiian Airlines bankruptcy, fees added up to about $1 million a month. Hawaiian Telcom’s fees will probably be in that ball park.
But you can’t underestimate Hawaiian Telcom Chairman Walter Dods dealmaking skills.
As CEO of First Hawaiian Bank, he negotiated the company's sale to BNP Paribas, which added billions of dollars to the value to the local bank.
As a trustee of the Damon Estate, he engineered the $480 million sale of the trust’s Mapunapuna lands to Massachusetts-based HRPT Properties Trust in 2003.
Hawaiian Telcom has said that it has spoken with 12 investment groups about a buyout or an investment in the company. Management is also speaking with its current owner the Carlyle Group to restructure the company and pour more money into the local phone company.
For Hawaiian Telcom, the sooner a deal is struck, the better the deal will be for the company, its employees, its customers and its creditors. -- especially if its in the first year of the bankruptcy.
But if the bankruptcy goes well into the second year, the company will probably be negotiating from a weaker position because it won't have a lot of cash and has to take whatever offer is on the table at the time.

